Fight Analysis: Jose Ivan Guardado Ortiz

Per-Flaw Highlight Reels 10 SEPARATE REELS

Each flaw below has its own short reel with the top 4 examples: normal-speed lead-in → freeze with "FAULT DETECTED" banner → slow-motion replay at 1/4 speed, with persistent on-screen subtitle naming the fault and the tactical takeaway. Scroll down and click ▶ on any reel.

AI Fault Detection CLEANED v2

9,750 frames analyzed (rounds 1–7, intro skipped, 1981 referee poses filtered out via blue-shirt color detection). Each flaw has its own embedded reel with 4 best examples in slow motion.

Lead Hand Too Low 84.4%

His lead hand drops below the guard threshold in 84% of frames after the cleaned analysis. This is the #1 vulnerability — far worse than initially detected. Direct path to his face for the right hand, no parry ability.

How Otar exploits this: Straight right and overhand right have a clean lane. Jab to draw the lead hand down further, then come over the top. No check hook defense when the hand drops.

Rear Hand Too Low NEW 82.2%

Newly detected after the v2 cleanup — his rear hand also drops 82% of the time. Both hands low simultaneously means the entire guard collapses, and the chin tuck does nothing without hand cover.

How Otar exploits this: When BOTH hands are low, every punch type is open. Lead hook to the temple, straight right to the chin, uppercut up the middle. Combination volume punching will overwhelm.

Stance Too Wide REVISED 68.9%

Originally read 4.4% — the cleaned analysis shows it's actually 69%. He overextends his stance constantly, planted feet, slow to pivot. The earlier "narrow stance" reading at 78% was the referee, not Jose.

How Otar exploits this: Wide planted stance = slow lateral movement. Cut angles aggressively, attack from his blind side, force him to reset constantly. He can't pivot to follow without stumbling.

Chin Up — Head Exposed 64.4%

Original 100% reading was inflated by including the upright referee. Real number is 64% — still a major flaw. His chin floats up consistently when he's not throwing, leaving the jaw as a permanent target.

How Otar exploits this: Left hook to the chin behind the jab is still the money shot. Uppercuts through the guard land because there's no chin tuck. Time overhand rights when he's stationary on the line.

Rear Elbow Flared 37.8%

Rear elbow drifts away from his body in 38% of frames, opening a corridor to his liver and ribs on the right side.

How Otar exploits this: Left hooks to the liver land through this gap. This is exactly how Conceicao finished him — relentless body work through the flared rear elbow. Feint high, dig low.

Lead Elbow Flared 31.1%

Lead elbow wings out in ~31% of frames, leaving his left side body open and reducing guard structure during/after his own punches.

How Otar exploits this: Counter with the right hand over his flared lead elbow. When his elbow lifts, step right and throw the straight down the pipe. Right hooks to the body under the elbow.

Trunk Leaning Forward NEW 24.4%

Over-commits weight forward in 24% of frames. Off-balance for counters, uppercut path opens up the middle.

How Otar exploits this: When he leans in, uppercut up the middle. Pivot left to make him fall forward into nothing, then counter the off-balance moment.

Feet Crossing CRITICAL 15.6%

Severe footwork error — his feet cross 16% of the time. Total loss of base and balance for that moment. Each instance is a free shot opportunity.

How Otar exploits this: When his feet cross, EXPLODE forward with combinations — he literally has no defense. Knockdown opportunities live here. Watch his footwork; the moment you see crossover, unload.

Trunk Leaning Backward NEW 8.9%

Pulls back to evade in 9% of frames. Removes his own power and breaks balance.

How Otar exploits this: When he leans away, step in with the jab to close the gap, then unload — he can't generate power from that position to counter.

Stance Too Narrow CORRECTED 2.2%

The original 78% reading was the REFEREE (he stands with feet close together). After ref filtering, real boxer stance is rarely narrow — in fact he leans the OPPOSITE way (too wide, see flaw #3).

How Otar exploits this: Negligible — this isn't a real Jose vulnerability. Focus on the wide-stance and footwork issues instead.

Analysis Methodology: v1 → v2 FIXED

Three flaws caught by manual review — all now corrected in v2

✓ Three problems found and fixed

v1 problem: First 60 seconds of the YouTube video are highlights from OTHER fights and intro greetings — NOT the Conceicao vs Guardado bout
v2 fix: --start 60 skips the intro entirely
v1 problem: Referee in blue shirt was tracked as a boxer throughout the fight — not just at the stoppage. Single-pose model picked him when he was the most prominent person in frame.
v2 fix: multi-pose detection (3 poses) + HSV color check at chest landmark — any pose with a dominant blue chest is filtered out. 1981 referee poses excluded across the fight.
v1 problem: Post-fight chaos (8:00+) added more ref-only frames
v2 fix: --duration 390 caps at 7:30, before the body-shot KO

⚠ How dramatically the numbers changed

Stance Too Narrow: 78% → 2.2% — this was almost entirely the REFEREE's stance (he stands with feet close together)
Chin Up: 100% → 64% — still high, but the upright ref was inflating it
Lead Hand Too Low: 40% → 84% — was masked because the ref kept his hands at his sides; now we see Jose's real guard issue
NEW: Rear Hand Too Low (82%) — not detected before because ref-tracking suppressed the boxer-specific reading
NEW: Stance Too Wide (69%), Trunk Leaning Forward (24%), Feet Crossing (16%), Trunk Leaning Backward (9%) — all surfaced after cleanup

Lesson: garbage-in detections produce confident-looking but wrong scouting reports. Always verify what the AI is actually looking at.

Remaining limitation (be aware)

We filter the referee but cannot definitively distinguish Jose from Conceicao — both are bare-torsoed and the multi-pose tracker picks whichever boxer has the largest pose in frame. So the headline numbers describe "the more prominent boxer" who is usually but not always Jose. The flaws ARE Jose-typical (corroborated by his pattern in the Morales loss), but treat individual reel moments as illustrative, not forensic.

Fight Recap: Conceicao vs Guardado

April 13, 2024 | American Bank Center, Corpus Christi, TX | TKO Round 7

What Conceicao Did Right

Established the jab early and used it constantly to control distance
Attacked the body relentlessly through Guardado's flared elbows
Maintained aggressive pressure, never let Guardado set his feet
Landed hard left hands in succession, targeting the exposed chin
Built up body damage systematically until the R7 knockout shot

What Guardado Did Wrong

Head glued to center line - zero lateral movement or slipping
Chin up the entire fight - absorbed clean shots he should have avoided
No offensive pressure - fight described as "a sparring session"
Left eye swelling but made no defensive adjustments
Narrow stance left him unable to absorb body shots properly
Never established counters to disrupt opponent's rhythm

Also Lost to Victor Morales Jr (Dec 2024)

Lost by retirement in round 7 - same pattern of accumulating damage
Morales (19-0-1, orthodox, 5'7") pressured him identically to Conceicao
Shows Guardado has NOT fixed these technical flaws between fights
Vulnerable fighters who can pressure and work the body beat him consistently

Fight Plan for Otar "Pitbull" Eranosyan

Tactical game plan based on AI analysis of 14,942 frames

Rounds 1-3: Establish Range

Double and triple the jab - his lead hand is low 40% of the time
Feint high to freeze him, then dig to the body through his flared elbows
Work behind the jab to close distance (4" height disadvantage)
Test his chin early - it's up 100% of the time, land the hook
Apply forward pressure - he crumbles under sustained aggression

Rounds 4-6: Break Him Down

Heavy body work through the rear elbow gap (57.8% flared)
Left hook to liver is THE money shot - same as Conceicao's finish
Push him to the ropes - narrow stance (77.8%) = no balance to escape
He won't adjust - same flaws present in BOTH recent losses
Combination punching: jab-cross-hook to overload his static defense

Round 7+: Finish

Both his losses came in round 7 - this is when he breaks
Accumulate body damage rounds 1-6, then pour it on in 7
His narrow stance + accumulated body damage = he'll fold
Uppercuts when he shells up - his chin never tucks
If he's on the ropes, unload - he has zero escape ability

Watch Out For

4" height advantage - he's taller so manage distance carefully
He has 16 wins - can be dangerous when throwing first
Orthodox vs orthodox - stay disciplined with the jab
Don't get drawn into exchanges at his range early
His draw was early career - he's gotten more experienced since

Analysis Methodology

How this report was generated

AI-Powered Pose Estimation

MediaPipe PoseLandmarker (33-point body skeleton per frame)
14,942 frames analyzed at 25 FPS from the full Conceicao fight
All metrics normalized by body height for scale invariance
Temporal analysis with 45-frame (1.5s) sliding window
6 distinct fault types detected with severity thresholds
Orthodox stance confirmed via shoulder/foot orientation analysis
Tool: boxing-analysis (open source)

Scouting Report: Jose Ivan Guardado Ortiz