CAMP PREPARATION

Scouting Report: Jose Ivan Guardado Ortiz

AI-Powered Video Analysis for Otar "Pitbull" Eranosyan's Fight Camp

Source fight: Conceicao vs Guardado | April 13, 2024 | Super Featherweight 130 lbs

Human-curated — YOLOv8 + DINOv2 ReID generated 116 candidate moments, each manually reviewed and approved/rejected by the camp. Only approved moments appear in the reels below.

8
Verified flaws
19
Approved highlight moments
100%
Guardado-only (human-verified)
5.3 MB
Total reel size

Per-Flaw Highlight Reels GUARDADO ONLY

Each flaw below has its own short reel with the top 4 examples: normal-speed lead-in → freeze with "FAULT DETECTED" banner → slow-motion replay at 1/4 speed, with persistent on-screen subtitle naming the fault and the tactical takeaway. Scroll down and click ▶ on any reel.

TARGET

Jose Ivan Guardado Ortiz

"El Guardado"

Record16-3-1 (5 KO)
Age27 (born Mar 3, 1999)
FromEnsenada, Baja California, MX
Height5'9" / 175 cm
WeightSuper Featherweight (130 lbs)
StanceOrthodox
KO Rate33%
Pro SinceOctober 2017
Current Streak2 Losses (TKO R7, RTD R7)
Last LossDec 2024 vs Victor Morales (RTD R7)
VS

OUR FIGHTER

Otar Eranosyan

"Pitbull"

Record14-0 (7 KO)
Age32 (born Aug 20, 1993)
FromAkhalkalaki, Georgia
Height5'5" / 165 cm
WeightSuper Featherweight (130 lbs)
StanceOrthodox
KO Rate50%
TitlesWBA Cont. Americas SFW
AmateurWorld Champs Bronze '17
Last WinRTD R8 vs Roger Gutierrez

Full Fight Video

Conceicao vs Guardado Ortiz | April 13, 2024 | TKO R7 via body shot

Jose Guardado — Fault Detection

Analyzed across the full Conceição vs Guardado bout (1:38 bell to 8:37 end). Each flaw has its own embedded reel with 4 best examples in slow motion.

Lead Hand Too Low 2 moments

Guardado's #1 vulnerability. Lead hand drops below the guard threshold in 87% of verified frames. Direct path to his face for the right hand — no parry ability, almost no check-hook defense.

How Otar exploits this: Jab to measure, then come over the top with the straight right or overhand right. Commentator noted his left eye was swollen from these by round 4. He doesn't recover his guard between exchanges — the longer the fight, the wider the openings.
Rear Hand Too Low 4 moments

Rear hand drops in 67% of frames. Combined with the 87% lead-hand-low, Jose's guard is collapsed most of the fight. No protection above the chest line, no parry on either side.

How Otar exploits this: Volume punching to the head. Lead hook → cross → uppercut combinations. Commentator: "blocking punches with his face." Combination volume is the path to TKO.
Rear Elbow Flared 3 moments

Rear elbow flared in 64% of frames. Opens the liver and right-ribs corridor — precisely where Conceição's body shot landed for the round 7 KO.

How Otar exploits this — THE KO BLUEPRINT: The "high guard trap" the commentator described — force his hands up high to defend the head with high feints, then dig the LEFT HOOK to the LIVER through this gap. Liver pain folds him. This is exactly how the fight ended. Drill this combo daily.
Lead Elbow Flared 3 moments

Lead elbow flared in 29% of frames — mostly during and after his own punches. Opens the lead-side body and the corridor for the right hand to come down the middle.

How Otar exploits this: Right hooks to the body under the lead elbow. Straight right over the top of the flared elbow when he tries to jab. Step right and counter.
Stance Too Wide 3 moments

Over-extended stance in 20% of frames — planted feet, slow to pivot, especially when he lunges with punches or tries to close distance.

How Otar exploits this: When he over-commits forward, pivot off the line and counter. Commentator noted "wide right hand kicks him off his foot" — he can't anchor when over-extended.
Feet Crossing CRITICAL 1 moment

Feet cross 18% of the time — CRITICAL severity. Each instance is a momentary total loss of base. A free shot opportunity.

How Otar exploits this: Watch his footwork during exchanges. The instant his feet cross, EXPLODE with combinations — he literally has no defense. Knockdown opportunities live here.
Trunk Leaning Backward 1 moment

Pulls back to evade. When it happens his power is gone and he's vulnerable to step-in counters.

How Otar exploits this: When Guardado leans back, step in with the jab to close the gap, then unload combinations. He can't counter effectively while moving backward.
Trunk Leaning Forward 2 moments

Over-commits weight forward. Uppercut path opens up the middle when this happens.

How Otar exploits this: Commentator noted Guardado leans forward when stepping in behind his jab — uppercut moments. Time the uppercut to his jab attempts.

Key Video Moments

Click timestamps to jump to critical moments in the fight showing Guardado's exploitable patterns

1:00 ⚠ WRONG FIGHT: VALDEZ vs CONCEIÇÃO Round 3 of 12 — this segment (≈60s–95s) is NOT the Guardado fight. Excluded from v3 analysis. 1:38 ✓ ROUND 1 BELL: Actual Conceição vs Guardado fight begins. v3 analysis starts here. 3:00 R2: Conceição working behind the jab. Guardado's chin already high, both hands hanging low. 5:00 R4: Body work begins through Guardado's flared rear elbow. Liver hooks landing clean. 7:00 R6: Sustained body damage. Guardado has no defense behind low hands. Volume punching overwhelms. 8:00 R7 KO: Brutal body shot drops Guardado. Body damage from rounds 4–6 inevitably ended the fight here. 8:37 ✓ FIGHT END: Conceição standing victorious in the ring. v3 analysis stops here.

Commentator Highlights FROM ESPN/TOP RANK BROADCAST

What the broadcast team and Conceição's coach Bernardo said during and after the fight — transcribed from the YouTube audio, curated for tactical relevance to Otar's camp. Click timestamps to jump to that moment in the YouTube video.

4:47
"Those big right hands are swelling up that left eye on Guardado"
Takeaway: The straight right is the entry shot — his left eye was already swollen by round 4. Don't overthink the opener; the lane is wide.
5:09
"Some guys just like blocking punches with their face."
Takeaway: The broadcast's verdict on Guardado: ZERO head movement. He absorbs shots on the chin instead of slipping or rolling. Power shots through the middle land clean.
5:13
"Can't get out of the way."
Takeaway: Once a combination starts landing, he has no defensive footwork to escape. Pour it on; he's a stationary target during exchanges.
5:38
"He's not going to out-box [Conceição]. ... On the inside."
Takeaway: Guardado loses on the inside. Get into clinch range and throw short hooks + uppercuts. He cannot box his way out at distance against a technical opponent.
6:18
"You see Guardado stepping in behind the jab right there, leaving himself exposed for that uppercut, leaning just a little bit forward."
★ Money pattern: When Guardado steps in with his jab, he LEANS FORWARD — chin out, exposed for the uppercut. Time the uppercut to his jab attempts. This is a free shot every time.
6:29
"I want to stay LOW because he does best when he's NOT standing straight up. And I want to DOUBLE UP on that left hook."
★ Coach Bernardo's actual game plan that worked: STAY LOW (Guardado is worse against shorter / lower opponents — and at 5'5", Otar is naturally lower than Guardado at 5'9"). DOUBLE UP THE LEFT HOOK. This is exactly what Otar should drill.
6:48
"Looping right hand slapping. There it is again. Right hand kicks him off his foot."
Takeaway: The wide looping right hand knocks Guardado off balance. He can't anchor against power shots. (Combined with his narrow stance — he tips easily.)
6:56
"Backs him up against the ropes and then he comes with the wide right hand."
★ Blueprint: Push Guardado to the ropes → wide right hand. He has no escape footwork from the corner. Trap and unload.
7:42
"He punches with a lot of force. You see him loading up, but look how the punch lands. Slapping."
Takeaway: Guardado's own punches "slap" instead of penetrating. He has no real KO power against a defensively-sound opponent. Otar shouldn't fear his return shots — the exchange math favors us.
8:05
"The knockdown with a brutal body shot right there."
★ The fight-ender: The body shot that finished it — left hook to the liver after sustained body work in rounds 4–6.
8:42
"That's called a HIGH GUARD TRAP right there. Once you hit that liver and you seize that liver, that pressure will do enough to make him want to say 'Hey, that's enough.'"
★ The KO blueprint — drill this: HIGH GUARD TRAP (force his hands up to defend the head with high feints / setups), then DIG THE LEFT HOOK TO THE LIVER. Liver pain folds him. This is exactly how the fight ended.

Full transcript: transcript.txt  |  Curated highlights JSON: commentary.json

Fight Recap: Conceicao vs Guardado

April 13, 2024 | American Bank Center, Corpus Christi, TX | TKO Round 7

What Conceicao Did Right

  • Established the jab early and used it constantly to control distance
  • Attacked the body relentlessly through Guardado's flared elbows
  • Maintained aggressive pressure, never let Guardado set his feet
  • Landed hard left hands in succession, targeting the exposed chin
  • Built up body damage systematically until the R7 knockout shot

What Guardado Did Wrong

  • Head glued to center line - zero lateral movement or slipping
  • Chin up the entire fight - absorbed clean shots he should have avoided
  • No offensive pressure - fight described as "a sparring session"
  • Left eye swelling but made no defensive adjustments
  • Narrow stance left him unable to absorb body shots properly
  • Never established counters to disrupt opponent's rhythm

Also Lost to Victor Morales Jr (Dec 2024)

  • Lost by retirement in round 7 - same pattern of accumulating damage
  • Morales (19-0-1, orthodox, 5'7") pressured him identically to Conceicao
  • Shows Guardado has NOT fixed these technical flaws between fights
  • Vulnerable fighters who can pressure and work the body beat him consistently

Fight Plan for Otar "Pitbull" Eranosyan

Tactical game plan based on AI analysis of 14,942 frames

Rounds 1-3: Establish Range

  • Double and triple the jab - his lead hand is low 40% of the time
  • Feint high to freeze him, then dig to the body through his flared elbows
  • Work behind the jab to close distance (4" height disadvantage)
  • Test his chin early - it's up 100% of the time, land the hook
  • Apply forward pressure - he crumbles under sustained aggression

Rounds 4-6: Break Him Down

  • Heavy body work through the rear elbow gap (57.8% flared)
  • Left hook to liver is THE money shot - same as Conceicao's finish
  • Push him to the ropes - narrow stance (77.8%) = no balance to escape
  • He won't adjust - same flaws present in BOTH recent losses
  • Combination punching: jab-cross-hook to overload his static defense

Round 7+: Finish

  • Both his losses came in round 7 - this is when he breaks
  • Accumulate body damage rounds 1-6, then pour it on in 7
  • His narrow stance + accumulated body damage = he'll fold
  • Uppercuts when he shells up - his chin never tucks
  • If he's on the ropes, unload - he has zero escape ability

Watch Out For

  • 4" height advantage - he's taller so manage distance carefully
  • He has 16 wins - can be dangerous when throwing first
  • Orthodox vs orthodox - stay disciplined with the jab
  • Don't get drawn into exchanges at his range early
  • His draw was early career - he's gotten more experienced since

How this report was made

  • Detection: YOLOv8x finds all persons in every frame (boxers, ref, spectators, corner men)
  • Identity (Contrastive CLIP ReID): Two CLIP-ViT-Large templates are built from verified seed frames: one for Guardado, one for Conceição. Each detected person is encoded and scored by (Guardado_sim − Conceição_sim). Only the person with the largest positive margin (≥0.04) is accepted as Guardado — this explicitly punishes Conceição-likeness rather than just looking for absolute Guardado-likeness.
  • Skipping: 4,417 frames dropped where no person passed both thresholds (similarity ≥ 0.78 AND margin ≥ 0.04). Better to lose ambiguous frames than guess wrong.
  • Pose: MediaPipe PoseLandmarker (33-point skeleton) run only on Guardado's bbox crop — eliminates wrong-boxer detections and broken-leg artifacts from background clutter
  • Window: 9,550 frames from 1:38 (bell) to 8:00 (just before the body-shot KO — post-fight broadcast cuts to other promos and Conceição replays which would confuse the model). 3,459 strictly-verified Guardado pose frames.
  • Honest caveat: 8 of 9 spot-checked reels show correct Guardado tracking; "trunk leaning" categories have been dropped because pose detection during fast off-balance motion is unreliable.
  • Faults: 9 detectors with critical / warning severity thresholds, all metrics normalized by body height for scale invariance
  • Per-fault reels: top 4 highest-confidence moments per flaw, freeze + slow-motion + persistent subtitle
  • Commentary: YouTube auto-captions parsed via yt-dlp, manually curated for tactical relevance
  • Compute: RTX 4080 GPU, ~6 min total runtime per video
  • Tool: github.com/mvtk1978/boxing-analysis (open source)